At the close of AUG 17th 2008, these are the standings in Major League Baseball...
If you're used to the same old way of breaking down teams, this page is not for you. When you take a 1st person approach to tracking baseball, the rhythmic way a team leaves Spring Training, gets through Interleague play, reloads at the All-Star break, sells or buys at the trading deadline, and then skims the waiver wire until the rosters expand for the stretch run on SEPT 1st takes shape in you. The now infamous 'historic collapse' of the 2007 NY Mets and the sudden wild run of the Colorado Rockies are perfect examples of how drastically that ride can be.
In order to 'see' these teams as living systems, it helps to use some basic tools. After 120+ games, these players, managers, GM's, and coaching staffs have ingrained certain 'group rhythms' that they'll carry into the stretch now. Even ownership and the scouting department can factor in. The media attention for the rising upstarts and the perennial contenders (the ones expected to win) will intensify. The fanbases will get swept up with pennant fever, which can backfire sometimes (ask the '07 Mets!). But relax. All you need to now is what kind of perspective the manager has to get a sense of what'll happen next...baseball is a follow the leader game.
PHYLO Leaders - They create a bond with an inner circle of players and tend to have a doghouse for the nonbelievers. Their ability/inability to delegate authority to team leaders, veterans and especially their ace and closer are keys to their success/or lack of it. They're usually player's coaches at first and gradually they become labeled as aloof or stale over time.
ONTO Leaders - They use an internalized belief system, an attack mode mindset, and a 'don't embarrass me' style of discipline. They want to see fight, not fear in their players 24/7. They are prone to confronting umpires, sportwriters, and team officials in defense of their team.
ECO Leaders - These are emotional and passionate leaders who can often personify an attitude of the whole team. They have an intuitive approach, which gets old fast when it doesn't work. They can be risk takers and yet not attached to the consequences.
EXO Leaders - These are the steady-handed stewards who absorb all the personality tensions, emotional baggage and frustrations of the team's season and have an ability to observe themselves as existing both within it and detached from it at the same time. They employ an empirical approach, usually have plausible tactics, and can work the media glibly.
AL EAST - Tampa lead by ONTO Joe Maddon...the most important fact is he's been there since '05 and brings his playoff pedigree from the Angels along. The injuries won't impact them down the stretch. The playoffs? Maybe. The defending champion Red Sox are lead by easy going EXO Terry Francona but this team gets it's edge from it's ECO fanbase, which Francona utilizes well. This year, however, the vacuum left by the loss of Manny, the top heavy nature of their lineup and their erratic staff will push Francona to task risks late in games. That's not him. The most curious contender are the ONTO led Yankees. Skipper Joe Giradi has employed many ECO style tactics to light a spark under his listless lineup. Their stretch run has two faces. One is the head to head games against Tampa and Boston. The other is what those teams do when they're not playing the Yankees. My sense is that Yankees are reluctant spoilers the last few weeks of September and will take satisfaction in eliminating Boston...
AL Central - Here we have a classic duel between ONTO Ozzie Guillen with the White Sox and EXO Ron Gardenhire with the Twins. You can almost toss the rosters out the window and just watch these two work their magic. Ozzie is as likely to throw his own players under the bus as he is his opponents. Gardenhire is a consummate game navigator. He gets the most of each player by being a fanatic for fundamentals. The Twins will not beat themselves. The White Sox may beat you up. While neither will catch the Angels for the #1, both will make it to OCT.
AL West - ONTO Mike Scioscia is fed up. He's fed up with getting knocked out by Boston. He's fed up with not winning on the road in the playoffs. So his team is literally running for it's life. They'll have best record sown up in a month, have their rotation set, have the rally monkey ready...and the Twins or White Sox will take them to 5 games in the ALDS anyway.
NL East - The eternal soap opera that pits the interim Met skipper EXO Jerry Manuel against the PHYLO 'Sage' Charlie Manuel is about to experience a reversal of fortune. The self-defeating Mets are discovering that they have both an offense and a staff to be in most games. They're actually competing with their own pen and that's about it. The Phillies are sputtering on offense, their reigning MVP is calling that ONTO fanbase front runners (what ONTO isn't?) and the rest of the starters are trying to carry the team individually. Remember, after all the credit the Phillies got for seizing the East in '07, they were swept by Colorado. Not this year JRo. The Mets will put their ECO fanbase through hell but they'll win this division. Poor PHYLO Fredi Gonzalez has to be content with being the spoiler. The Marlins are hitting a wall most young teams find when you play lousy defense, have a leaky pen and no real ace.
NL Central - Just like their counterparts on the South Side, the ONTO in charge of the Cubs, Lou Pinella leads a pack of crazed dogs down the stretch. It's a good thing too, because right behind him are a pack of hungry wolves in Milwaukee, led by EXO Ned Yost. Like Tampa, the Brewers will fight just about everyone but the hot dog vendor. The funny part is, the real 'wild dog' in this division are ONTO Tony LaRussa's flawed St. Louis Cardinals. It'll be close between them and MIL who earns the Wild Card. I'm inclined to say ECO CC and MIL will pull away late.
NL West - The most nondescript division may actually have the most hotly contested race. The EXO Bob Melvin leads a scrappy group of Snakes into the belly of the beast to face the most 'made for TV' team in the majors - PHYLO Joe Torre and Manny's flying circus. The chess game between Melvin and Torre will be a fascinating watch. Both have been down this road before. The D-backs had a wild finish last year with both Colorado and San Diego on their heels and Joe has been a virtual magician getting his Yankee teams to OCT for years. My sense is that in the end, the Hollywood ending plays out and Joe and Mattingly see an NLDS.
Notice that we have no ECO leaders this year. Last year we had Clint Hurdle in Colorado and Eric Wedge in Cleveland. But this year, out of 14 contenders, we have an influx of 6 ONTO's and 5 EXO's with only PHI, FLA and the Dodgers having a PHYLO on their bench. Some sapes and stats dudes say the manager doesn't win or lose games. I agree. The reason why it's so vital to know WHY they don't win or lose games is all embodied in their profiles. So watch the games and see if you can sense the way each type of leader pulls the strings. It's music to me.
Quick Picks: AL Tampa, Chicago White Sox, LA Angels (Minnesota - wild card)
NL NY Mets, Chicago Cubs, LA Dodgers (Milwaukee - wild card)
Send me your comments/questions: nakedsoma@gmail.com
For my interview on Mike Silva's NY Baseball Digest, click here - start it 37 minutes in
Learn how to use PROFILING to discover your own social identity, click here
